[Abstract]

Objective: Following the economic improvement and life style change, the incidence of colorectal cancer （CRC） has being increased. Now, CRC has became the third common malignant tumor is China. Since the last 10 years, the mortality of CRC hadn't changed a lot, the 5 years survival rate remains at 60% to 70%.Methods: This retrospective study involved 464 consecutive patients with CRC treated by radical surgery from January 1, 1998 to December 31, 2002 in PLA hospital. Patents who had involved synchronism distant metastases before surgery were excluded. The time of the case enrolled in this study is surgical time. Disease-free survival （DFS） was counted as considered as the period of relapse or death. All follow-up ended on December 31, 2006. DFS were estimated by the methods of Kaplan-Meier and log-rank test were used to determine univariate significance .
Modern Multivariate Statistical Techniques: Regression, Classification, and Manifold Learning (Springer Texts in Statistics)
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Alan J. IzenmanFactors that were deemed of potential importance on univariate analysis were include in the multivariate analysis by the Cox multivariate regression model. Relations between two factors were assessed using the Mann-Whiney test. The performance of the predictive model was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves （ROC）. Probability values3 were classified into three group, negative lymph nodes with tumor nodules （Group A）, negative lymph nodes without tumor nodules （Group B）, one positive lymph nodes without tumor nodules （Group C）. The prognosis was not significantly between Group A and Group C （p=0.415）, but it was significantly different between Group B and Group A （p=0.032） and C （p=0.036）. From the viewpoint of prognosis, it appears to be more reasonable to regard tumor nodules as lymph node.Conclusion:1、 On multivariate analysis, depth of penetration, the number of positive lymph nodes, elevated preoperative CEA and the adjuvant chemotherapy was independent predictor for DFS.
Applied Regression Analysis and Multivariable Methods (Duxbury Applied)
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David G. Kleinbaum 2、The equation for risk factors of prognosis was established.[h （t,xi）] =h0exp（0.485×1+0.509×2+0.37X3-0.57X4） 3 、 Preoperative s-CEA may act in dose-dependent manner for poor prognosis. A new cutoff value for prognosis of 4.1ng/ml was found in stage IIIB, which has a sensitivity of 69% and a specificity of 80%. 4、 From the viewpoint of prognosis, it appears to be more reasonable toregard "tumor nodules as" lymph node.5、 The incidence of more aggressive tumors was higher in younger persons, However, the 5-year survival of younger patients is not worse than the elderly.

Title: Multivariate Regression Analyses of Prognosis of Colorectal Cancer after Radical Resection

Category: Tumor Marker

Filename: Multivariate Regression Analyses of Prognosis of Colorectal Cancer after Radical Resection.pdf

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